AFAC's spring bushfire outlook predicts heightened fire risk across northern and south-eastern NSW, with a strengthening El Nino and dry conditions creating the conditions for an early and intense fire season.
Culture Desk is a contributing writer covering culture and public affairs for The Sydney Times.
Australia is bracing for a dangerous bushfire season, with the Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services predicting heightened fire risk across northern and south-eastern NSW, south-east Queensland, north-eastern Tasmania, parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria, and large parts of the Northern Territory.
AFAC's Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Spring 2026, released in August, predicts an increased risk of fire across all jurisdictions except the ACT. The outlook is driven by a combination of dry conditions in the east, increased fuel loads in central and northern Australia, and a strengthening El Nino weather pattern that is linked to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures across eastern Australia.
In NSW, drier conditions are expected particularly west of the Great Dividing Range, increasing fire concerns. South-east Queensland, north-eastern NSW and north-west South Australia are also looking at an increased chance of fires. Below-average rainfall has increased bushfire risk across large parts of southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, including Flinders Island. In the Northern Territory, above-average fuel loads are elevating fire risk despite forecasts of above-average rainfall in some areas.
AFAC CEO Rob Webb said: "This outlook highlights a heightened risk of fire across several parts of the country, driven by a combination of dry conditions in the east and increased fuel loads through parts of central and northern Australia. The variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities to understand their local conditions and prepare early."
El Nino is linked to reduced rainfall, particularly in eastern Australia, and increased temperatures, mainly across the country's south. It often helps load the dice for more extreme fire conditions, and past events have contributed to some of Australia's hottest and driest years on record.
The Bureau of Meteorology declared an El Nino in June 2026, with some models suggesting it could become the strongest on record. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could emerge before spring, which could exacerbate the impacts of El Nino. Climate scientists have long warned that fire seasons across Australian states and territories will start earlier and persist longer due to climate change.
Professor David Bowman, a leading Australian fire scientist, said: "Plants are very good at controlling their water use, but if you subject them to very strong heating, you can rapidly stress and dry out landscapes and make the landscapes available for high-intensity fires. My instinct would be to caution against complacency about particularly forest fires."
Victoria's Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said significant fire danger could emerge from October. "Victoria can expect a hotter and drier spring, which means that we could see significant bushfire risk commencing from as early as October this year, and our emergency services in Victoria are now starting to prepare for that scenario."
In NSW, the Rural Fire Service is conducting hazard-reduction burns and other mitigation work in high-risk areas. Acting Deputy Chief Officer Aaron Howard said crews are already preparing for the season, with a focus on getting communities prepared before conditions deteriorate.
In the Northern Territory, Fire and Emergency Commissioner Andrew Warton said a delayed Top End wet season could extend the period of elevated risk in the north, while other parts of the territory enter their own high-risk periods. "This year the forecast later onset of the Top End wet season meets an elevated fire danger in the north, could extend into November, and at the same time the Barkley, Tanami and Central Australia regions move into their high-risk period. That creates the potential for significant fire risk across multiple regions of the Northern Territory simultaneously."
The Bureau of Meteorology joined emergency management professionals at AFAC26 in Melbourne in August to highlight the elevated bushfire risk and encourage early preparation. The Bureau's Michael Egan said: "The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Spring 2026 does identify an above-average risk for northern and south-eastern NSW, south-east Queensland, north-eastern Tasmania, parts of Western Australia and Victoria, and large parts of the Northern Territory."
Emergency services across the country are delivering a consistent message: residents should understand the risks in their area, make a plan and prepare before conditions deteriorate. Basic home maintenance can help reduce the risk of damage, particularly from storms and flooding. Gardens should be maintained with fire-resistant plants, gutters should be cleared of dry leaves and debris, and houses should be equipped with adequate insurance.
The advice from fire authorities is to take simple steps now, before the fire season starts. Prepare a bushfire survival plan, understand your risk, discuss it with your loved ones, and make sure your property is prepared. The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook does not predict exactly where fires will occur, but it provides an early indication of areas where the combination of weather, vegetation and other factors may contribute to increased bushfire potential.
Australia's fire season will follow a devastating summer across the northern hemisphere, marred by successive record-breaking heatwaves and extreme wildfires in Europe, the United States and Canada. Professor Bowman said the events reinforced that fire seasons are worsening. "We are much more advanced in terms of our capacity, but it also is a very good reminder, particularly what's happening in the US and Canada, who are very advanced in managing fire, that they're seeing fire seasons and fire behaviours that are just simply extraordinary. I have every reason to believe that we will see equally extraordinary fires. If it's not this summer, it's certainly going to be in the next."
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